According to DC area investment investment bank Friedman Billings Ramsey, the chances of a return to last years' conforming jumbo limit is "well over 50%".
In a late night vote, the Senate voted to re-raise the GSE loans limits back to $729,000 after letting them go back to $625,000 earlier this month. The vote was 60-38. The House will protest, but strong bipartisan support in the Senate gives credence to the chances.
In addition, talk that the refinance plan will be announced in a presidential news conference on Monday, has not come from the White House. Thinking seems to speculate that the plan will be bigger than the market is pricing in. Washington contacts believe that Presidential announcement or not, the refi program is still going to be modest and this is just Obama "taking credit".